Three weeks ago, I released my Mock 1.0, setting the foundation for how I think the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft might unfold. Since then, pro days have wrapped, draft boards have sharpened and whispers have become more decipherable. With new intel, movement in betting markets and changes in team priorities, it's time for 2.0 -- a more refined forecast as we enter the home stretch of the pre-draft process.
This is now the 21st straight year I've assembled a first-round mock draft. As mentioned in my last first-round simulation, my approach is research-driven: I blend insider reports, team needs, scheme fits, apparent organizational philosophies and betting odds to connect dots and predict what each club's decision makers will do when they're on the clock.
Over the last five years, my mock draft accuracy ranks fifth among 75 national experts, including a second-place finish out of 172 entries in 2024. Back in 2009, I authored the most accurate first-round mock on record. The key to consistency? A system. This year, I'm adding a new mechanism to the process: Draft IQ, a custom-built tool powered by Amazon QuickSight that evaluates every team's projected draft targets, top needs, front office tendencies and so much more. Be sure to follow Draft IQ before and during the draft for a data-driven approach to exploring the selection plans for all 32 teams.
NOTE: Below each pick, I've included implied probabilities (as of 1 p.m. ET on Monday, April 14) for which position that team is most likely to draft first, based on odds pulled from DraftKings. While the favorite isn't always correct, these odds often provide valuable clues for each franchise's potential direction.
All signs point to second-year head coach Brian Callahan and first-year general manager Mike Borgonzi zeroing in on Ward with the first overall pick. Given Callahan’s quotes praising Ward at the recent Annual League Meeting and the team's decision to cancel a private workout with Shedeur Sanders, it would be a surprise if anyone else hears his name called here.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: QB (93%), DL (5%), CB (2%)
The Browns opt to add an elite weapon instead of a quarterback (Shedeur Sanders) or pass rusher (Abdul Carter). GM Andrew Berry recently told reporters he thinks Hunter will play on both sides of the ball at the next level.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: CB (63%), DL (26%), QB (9%)
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: DL (58%), CB (24%), QB (12%)
With Travis Hunter and Abdul Carter off the board, the Patriots prioritize protecting Drake Maye. Head coach Mike Vrabel is on record stating he views Campbell as an offensive tackle, despite the chatter about his arm length. While Missouri's Armand Membou might have gained momentum after a strong pre-draft process, it feels more likely that Vrabel and GM Eliot Wolf trust their fall evaluations and lean into the tape.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: OL (50%), DL (22%), LB (11%)
After learning under Les Snead with the Rams over the last nine years, first-year Jags GM James Gladstone undoubtedly knows the importance of building through the trenches. If the board falls this way, Graham would be the last of the blue-chip prospects at a premium position. Jacksonville's staff already has a solid read on this game wrecker, thanks to assistant linebackers coach Kevin Wilkins, who coached edge rushers at Michigan last season.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: DL (43%), OL (19%), LB (12%)
While conventional draft wisdom cautions against taking a running back this early, exceptions are made for elite playmakers -- especially when alternatives offer less certainty. It’s not a stretch to envision Jeanty as the highest-graded player available on most teams’ boards (without adjusting for positional value) from this point on in the draft. I believe the odds are even higher that this will be the case on a draft board influenced by Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly, two coaches who’ve consistently built their offenses around dynamic, every-down backs.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: RB (45%), CB (19%), LB (10%)
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: OL (43%), TE (20%), DL (9%)
Scheme fit is critical when projecting pass rushers, and Walker, who went to high school in Salisbury, North Carolina (less than an hour from Charlotte by car), is tailor-made to serve as a hybrid stand-up edge rusher in Ejiro Evero’s 3-4 base front.
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